![]() ![]() ![]() This report draws on ACLED data to provide a general overview of election-related conflict risks in Somalia. The turbulent run-up to the general elections, and a contested aftermath, may provide yet another opportunity for Al Shabaab to step up its challenge to the Somali government and the ill-equipped Somali National Army (SNA). This is against the backdrop of the ongoing insurgency by Al Shabaab, which continues to exercise its control over large swathes of central and southern Somalia after more than a decade of civil war. There are also frequent episodes of turmoil involving clans and communal groups. Government troops clashed with security forces affiliated with local elites in both Jubaland and Puntland, as well as in Galmudug. ![]() Opposition leaders, including some of the state presidents such as Jubaland’s Ahmed Madobe and Puntland’s Said Abdullahi Dani, have also accused Farmaajo of manipulating local elections and staffing electoral commissions with his allies.Īcross the country, these political tensions have occasionally escalated into violence. With Farmaajo’s mandate expiring in February 2021 and the government failing to announce a definitive election date, the opposition now questions the legitimacy of the incumbent president ruling beyond the end of his term. Initially scheduled to begin in November 2020, parliamentary elections were postponed to 2021, violating the electoral timeline agreed by Farmaajo and the state presidents. Across the country, signs of increasing unrest have surfaced in Somalia’s federal states of Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle, exposing the risk of a violent turn in Somalia’s political crisis. A constitutional crisis stoked by months of political deadlock between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’ and the opposition threatens to escalate into a violent conflict pitting federal forces against state-based militias, as well as armed clans with competing loyalties. Somalia’s parliamentary and presidential elections are set to take place amidst a general climate of political tensions and violence. ![]()
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